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Research and Markets: 1Q09 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013: Movistar Argentina Will Continue to Take Market Share from CTI Over the Next Five Years

Research and Markets( has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q09 Argentina Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013: Movistar Argentina Will Continue to Take Market Share from CTI Over the Next Five Years" to their offering.

IEMR's Mobile Operator Forecast on Argentina provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Argentina's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Argentina include Telecom Argentina (TI), Movistar Argentina (TEF), CTI (AMX), and Nextel. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary:

Wireless subscriber growth continues to slow down in Argentina +16.8% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2008

Positive ARPU growth over the last four quarters +6.9% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2008

Minutes of Use per Subscriber increasing +7.3% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 3Q.2008

Strong EBITDA growth continues in Argentina's mobile operator space Industry average EBITDA growth of +30% in 3Q.2008

So what is IEMR's Forecast?

Total subscribers to reach 51 million in 2013 We forecast that total subscribers in Argentina will increase from 46.5 million in 2009 to 51.0 million in 2013. While Telecom Argentina, Movistar Argentina, and Nextel will see their subscriber bases grow over the next five years, we expect that the number of subscribers at CTI (AMX) will decrease over this period.

Movistar Argentina will continue to lead Argentina's mobile operator space

Our model predicts that Movistar Argentina's market share (by subscribers) will increase from 35.2% in 2009 to 39.1% in 2013. In contrast, we expect that CTI's share of subscribers will decline from 34.8% in 2009 to 29.7% in 2013.

ARPUs levels to stabilize over the next five years We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase from ARS (Argentine Peso) 38.28 to ARS 39.16 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013. Telecom Argentina and Movistar Argentina will see their ARPU levels increase over the next five years. Our model predicts that monthly ARPU at Telecom Argentina will rise from ARS 39.13 to ARS 42.36 and monthly ARPU at Movistar Argentina will rise from ARS 38.71 to ARS 41.93 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.

EBITDA margins will increase in Argentina We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 31.1% in 2009 to 36.6% in 2013. Movistar Argentina will lead all operators with a 44.7% EBITDA margin in 2013 while CTI comes in second with 37.6% in 2013. Nextel will place third while Telecom Argentina will come in last with 36.5% and 23.7% respectively in 2013.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
  • Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013

Companies Mentioned:

  • Telecom Argentina (TI)
  • Movistar Argentina (TEF)
  • CTI (AMX)
  • Nextel

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